6:30 AM ET

The NFL draft is finally here, and I have one more set of Round 1 predictions before the fun begins Thursday night (8 p.m. ET, ESPN, ABC and ESPN+). This draft includes so much intrigue -- we could see a flurry of trades and surprises in the first round. We also could see five quarterbacks in the top 20 picks. If you've been reading our mock drafts for the past few months, though, maybe that won't surprise you.

As for the Carolina Panthers at No. 1? Well, I think I know the prospect they're taking, but after four decades of doing this, it's tough to say anything is a guarantee.

You can check out my final Big Board rankings for the 2023 draft, which includes the top 150 prospects overall and the best at every position. I graded more than 500 total players for this class. You can also check out my favorite prospects at every position, with a few nuggets and notes on 14 guys. I'll be on ESPN all weekend, and my grades for all 32 teams will be out late Saturday night, once I get some time to digest each team's draft class.

Let's get into my final 2023 mock draft, projecting all 31 first-round picks -- there's one fewer selection this year because Miami's was taken away -- based on what I'm hearing and where I see prospects going off the board. There are several changes from my last mock, when Todd McShay and I alternated picks for three rounds. I expect some chaos Thursday night, which is why I projected three trades below. You might be surprised at the landing spots for the quarterbacks. Here's how I see Round 1:

coverage:
McShay's final mock draft
Consensus position rankings
Last-minute buzz and rumors

1. Carolina Panthers (via CHI)

Bryce Young, QB, Alabama

I'm confident the Panthers will make the right call here and take Young, my top-ranked quarterback. He's going to be their face of the franchise for years to come, though they need to focus on putting talent around him so they're not picking in the top 10 in 2024.

2. Houston Texans

Will Anderson Jr., OLB, Alabama

I struggled with what to do here. Are the Texans really going to pass up a quarterback here? Will they trot out Davis Mills again next season? Could they find a veteran passer via trade -- or take one later in this draft?

I'm hearing Houston will take an edge rusher, either Anderson or Tyree Wilson (Texas Tech), unless it throws everyone a curveball. I like Anderson much more than Wilson, and that's the direction I'd go.

Projected trade: Titans make a big move up

This is the exact same trade I projected in my two-round mock draft a couple of weeks ago. Tennessee has studied these quarterbacks hard, and it could pounce. Plus, we know Arizona would prefer to trade down. This move makes a ton of sense.

This deal would be costly for the Titans, likely involving pick Nos. 11 and 41 in this draft, a 2024 first-rounder and a top pick in 2025. If they think they can get their quarterback of the future, it could be worth it.

3. Tennessee Titans (via mock trade with ARI)

C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State

This would mean the Titans going all-in on a rookie quarterback, potentially trading away Ryan Tannehill and bypassing Malik Willis, the 2022 third-round pick who was drafted by former general manager Jon Robinson. While I like Will Levis (Kentucky) just a little bit more, Stroud is my fifth-ranked prospect overall. He is a stellar downfield passer with pinpoint accuracy and anticipation.

The highlights that make C.J. Stroud a top NFL prospect

Take a look at some of C.J. Stroud's highlights from his college career at Ohio State.

4. Indianapolis Colts

Will Levis, QB, Kentucky

I'll stick with this match once again. The Colts have an offensive core to help Levis succeed. He's going to make some mistakes, but he has experience playing in a pro-style offense and is ahead of the curve in going through progressions and reading defenses.

5. Seattle Seahawks (via DEN)

Jalen Carter, DT, Georgia

I just can't see Seattle passing up its biggest need here. Carter would help it so much in the run game. He's the No. 1 prospect on my Big Board. The other possibility is edge rusher -- Tyree Wilson is still available -- though the Seahawks could address it with pick No. 20. There are rumblings about their interest in quarterback Anthony Richardson (Florida), but I'm going with defense.

6. Detroit Lions (via LAR)

Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois

A hole at cornerback opened up after the Lions traded away Jeff Okudah, and they could get the first choice of a really solid corner class. Witherspoon can lock down one side of the field. Detroit could also fill a need with pick No. 18.

7. Las Vegas Raiders

Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon

Here's another spot for a corner, with Gonzalez just behind Witherspoon in my rankings. They are clearly the top two guys. The 6-foot-1 Gonzalez has elite traits and length.

8. Atlanta Falcons

Tyree Wilson, DE, Texas Tech

I think Atlanta would love to grab one of the top corners, but they're off the board in this scenario. The 6-foot-6 Wilson has a high ceiling as a pass-rusher, even if he was inconsistent at times in college. He would fill a huge hole here.

9. Chicago Bears (via CAR)

Paris Johnson Jr., OT, Ohio State

Chicago might be hoping Carter falls here; remember when we thought it might take him at No. 1 overall? Instead, the Bears could pivot to offensive tackle and take the top lineman. We could see a run on tackles in the teens.

10. Philadelphia Eagles (via NO)

Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas

The Eagles might prefer to trade back, but why not take an elite runner/receiver who could help them win now? It might go against the organization's philosophy to take a running back this high, but the fit is logical, whether it's at No. 10 or a few spots later. If it's not Robinson, I thought about tackle/guard Peter Skoronski (Northwestern).

11. Arizona Cardinals (via mock trade with TEN)

Lukas Van Ness, DL, Iowa

Arizona is another team to watch for one of the tackles, but Van Ness would fill a big need. He could play all over the D-line here, and his positional flexibility is appealing. With the projected trade, the Cardinals now have an extra second-round pick, which would help them fill out their depleted roster.

12. Houston Texans (via CLE)

Zay Flowers, WR, Boston College

Surprised that Flowers is ahead of Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Ohio State)? Don't be. NFL teams really like both of them. Houston has quarterback questions in this scenario, but Flowers would make plays for whomever is throwing him passes.

13. Green Bay Packers (via NYJ)

Darnell Wright, OT, Tennessee

When the Packers swapped picks with the Jets in the Aaron Rodgers deal, putting them ahead of the Patriots, my first thought was an offensive tackle. Wright, who started 42 games in college, is a plug-and-play right tackle. Green Bay also could go for top pass-catching tight end Dalton Kincaid (Utah).

14. New England Patriots

Nolan Smith, OLB, Georgia

Smith strikes me as exactly the type of edge defender the Patriots would love to have. He could rack up 10 sacks per season for Bill Belichick & Co. I love this fit.

Projected trade: Vikings go up to get their QB

There's a top quarterback still available in this scenario, right? And the Jets will lose their 2024 first-round pick if Aaron Rodgers plays 65% of the snaps this season, right? This is a way for both sides to get what they want.

The Vikings could give up next year's first-rounder (and likely more) to move up eight spots. For New York, which needs an offensive lineman and could look hard at Skoronski, it could prefer to test its luck and draft a tackle at No. 23. This is a logical move for both teams.

15. Minnesota Vikings (via mock trade with WSH)

Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida

In Minnesota, Richardson could sit for a year behind Kirk Cousins and then take over in 2024, when Cousins is a free agent. This is the perfect place for Richardson. At 6-foot-4, 244 pounds, he has a rare size and speed combination, but he's incredibly raw as a passer. He needs to develop his all-around game.

16. Washington Commanders

Peter Skoronski, OT/G, Northwestern

I like Skoronski as a guard, but he could play tackle -- where he started in college -- in this scenario. Washington has a hole on the right side. He has tremendous feet for his size and can dominate in the run game.

Editor's Picks

17. Pittsburgh Steelers

Deonte Banks, CB, Maryland

Pittsburgh has three picks in the top 49, and it needs to come out of Round 2 with starters at offensive tackle and cornerback. Here's the first shot at a starter. Banks is a fantastic man-to-man cover guy. Steelers fans might be hoping for Joey Porter Jr., whose dad is a Pittsburgh legend, but I have Banks rated higher.

18. Detroit Lions

Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame

The Lions really don't have many immediate roster holes, but I love the idea of coach Dan Campbell going for an old-school tight end to help his offense. Mayer is a willing blocker and has upside as a pass-catcher.

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Broderick Jones, OT, Georgia

I expect the Bucs to be in the tackle market, and they could take the best available guy here. Tristan Wirfs could move from right to left tackle, opening up a void on the right side. Jones was outstanding for the national champs last season.

20. Seattle Seahawks

Myles Murphy, DE, Clemson

Here's another match I'm sticking with from my two-round mock draft. Murphy is a complete edge defender who can hold up against the run. With Seattle taking Carter at No. 5, this means coach Pete Carroll has replenished his D-line.

21. Los Angeles Chargers

Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Alabama

The Chargers are in a great spot to add a playmaker, either at tight end or receiver. But what if they went for a running back who can catch passes and help stretch the field? Gibbs has gotten a lot of buzz over the past week. Plus, Austin Ekeler wants out, so Gibbs could be a ready-made replacement.

22. Baltimore Ravens

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State

Smith-Njigba could go earlier than this, but he would really help Baltimore. He could be a star out of the slot. The Ravens added Odell Beckham Jr., but that was just a one-year deal, and he wouldn't take away reps from Smith-Njigba. This would be a selection to get Lamar Jackson some help.

23. New York Jets (via mock trade with MIN through GB)

Anton Harrison, OT, Oklahoma

This might be the best-case scenario for the Jets, who need a tackle who can play immediately. Harrison started at left tackle in college -- NFL scouts love his upside. New York added a 2024 first-rounder with my projected trade, but it can still get immediate help here.

And again, if the Jets stand pat at No. 15, I think they'd take Skoronski.

Anton Harrison's NFL draft profile

Check out the best highlights of Oklahoma's Anton Harrison that make him a draft prospect this year.

24. Jacksonville Jaguars

Emmanuel Forbes, CB, Mississippi State

Forbes, one of my favorite prospects in this class, is a ballhawk -- he had 14 picks over three college seasons, including six pick-sixes. The Jags have a solid depth chart at corner, but teams are always looking for more cover guys. He's a playmaker.

25. New York Giants

Joey Porter Jr., CB, Penn State

Will the Giants pass on the corners and opt for a wide receiver? In this scenario, Jordan Addison (USC) and Quentin Johnston (TCU) are still available. Ultimately, I think Porter could have a bigger rookie impact for New York, which ranked 25th in takeaways last season (19).

26. Dallas Cowboys

Dalton Kincaid, TE, Utah

Here's how Dallas could level up its offense. Kincaid is a dynamic pass-catcher who can find open spots in the middle of the field and stretch the seams on vertical routes. He'd help Dak Prescott from Day 1. If the Cowboys don't take a tight end, keep an eye on the edge rushers.

27. Buffalo Bills

Jordan Addison, WR, USC

The Bills need a playmaker out of the slot to take some of the pressure off Stefon Diggs. That's exactly what Addison can do. He'd run crossers and slants and pick up yards after the catch. Buffalo is another team that doesn't have many roster holes, but it could find a gem with Addison.

28. Cincinnati Bengals

Calijah Kancey, DT, Pitt

Kancey can wreck games from the interior line, and NFL teams covet that type of player. He's so quick at the snap. He's undersized -- 6-foot-1, 281 pounds -- but he had 13.5 sacks over the past two seasons. The Bengals ranked 29th in sacks last season (30), and Kancey could help the entire front seven.

29. New Orleans Saints (via DEN/MIA/SF)

Mazi Smith, DT, Michigan

Smith is getting some first-round buzz because he's the best run-stuffer in this class. At 6-foot-3, 323 pounds, he can plug a hole. Teams don't always prefer tackles with limited pass-rushing upside, but he'd fill a need in New Orleans. I moved Smith to No. 30 overall on my Big Board.

Projected trade: Texans move back into Round 1

The Texans own pick No. 33, and this is a deal that sees them make a third first-round pick. I don't think they'd have to give up too much -- maybe No. 33 plus a fourth- or fifth-rounder.

For the Eagles, who are always looking for extra draft capital, they could drop a few spots and still get their guy with the second pick of Round 2. And with this pick, Houston gets ...

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30. Houston Texans (via mock trade with PHI)

Hendon Hooker, QB, Tennessee

If Houston prefers Hooker over the other three quarterbacks, it could land at No. 2 -- Stroud, Levis or Richardson -- it could land him here. And the Texans might do this trade to make sure they have the rights to Hooker's fifth-year option. We saw the Ravens do this with Lamar Jackson in 2018.

I'm not as high on Hooker as others -- he's No. 54 overall in my rankings -- but I do think he'll land in Round 1. To sum up the Texans' draft, this gives them a quarterback, wideout (Flowers) and edge rusher (Anderson). While it's not what I would do, there is some rationality around the moves.

31. Kansas City Chiefs

Will McDonald IV, OLB, Iowa State

Let's finish up this mock with an edge rusher for Kansas City. I'm a big fan of McDonald's speed game -- he still needs to develop more moves -- and he has a skill set the Chiefs lack. While he might not be an every-down player as a rookie, his ceiling is high.

2023 nfl mock draft mel kiper final first round predictions best team fits picks quarterbacks

2023-04-27 19:30:52